Do the projections include global dimming?

Yes.

In detail

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the incoming solar radiation at Earth’s surface decreased between 1960 and 1990 (often referred to as global dimming). More recent observations, however, show that this has been followed by a trend reversal and increasing solar radiation since the late 1980s (global brightening). This trend reversal is likely due to a reduction in global aerosol emissions. The climate models used in UKCP09 do include the effect of sulphate aerosols, which are one of the main causes of global dimming. Box 2.1 of the Climate change projections report (see Find out more, below) list atmospheric constituents that are, and aren’t, included in the Met Office Hadley Centre models used in UKCP09.

Find out more

• Climate change projections report, Box 2.1