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FAQ: Science & modelling
Are different land surfaces included in the climate model? Are the other climate models that are incorporated in the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections weighted? Are the UKCIP02 scaling factors still correct and how does one produce scaling factors with UKCP09? Do the projections include intense convective rainfall such as occurs in thunderstorms? Do the UKCP09 projections include the urban heat island effect? Does downscaling increase uncertainties? Do the projections include "global dimming"? Have the results from ClimatePrediction.net been incorporated into UKCP09? How are the UKCP09 results validated? How are the models used in UKCP09 weighted, and how sensitive are the projections to this weighting? How does the Met Office Hadley Centre model compare with other models? How is model bias dealt with in UKCP09? Is the modelling behind UKCP09 sound? What do we mean by probability in the probabilistic climate projections? What are the sources of uncertainty considered in UKCP09? What is the baseline period used for UKCP09? What observed climate variables are used for weighting variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre models used in UKCP09? What other climate models are incorporated in the UKCP09 probabilistic projections? What parameters are varied in the Met Office Hadley Centre ensemble? What variables are available from the 11-member RCM output accessed at the LINK website? Why are projections of local changes more uncertain than projections of global changes? Why are there such big differences in projections between different climate models? Why aren't only those models that best represent the historical climate used? Why bother using climate projections when we know they are not perfect? Will the PDFs incorporate the effect of natural multi-decadal variability as well as climate change? Does the modelling also reflect sea level rise to IPCCAR4 ranges? How will climate change affect future flood risk? What climate variables have been processed in each batch? What is clipping and why has it been done? What are the implications for use? What is the High++ scenario?
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