Does UKCP09 reflect sea level rise within the IPCC AR4 ranges?

Yes, UKCP09 outlines that sea level rise over the next century is likely to reflect the IPCC AR4 range of values adjusted for the UK region.

In detail

Yes. For the purpose of more day to day climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, UKCP09 outlines that sea level rise over the next century is likely to be in a range between 20 and 90 cm, which reflects the IPCC AR4 range of values adjusted for the UK region. The upper bound figure of 90 cm corresponds closely with current Defra guidance on sea level rise allowances but relates it to a stronger scientific basis. The range reflects the uncertainties in the factors that contribute to sea level rise, such as thermal expansion of the oceans, and melting of glaciers and polar land ice. This range of sea level rise has emerged from the modelling work that has also advised the TE2100 study, which is case studied in Chapter 7 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report.

Find out more

• Marine & coastal projections report, Chapter 7

• Thames Estuary 2100 Project website