How will climate change affect future flood risk?
Future flood risk could increase significantly, but will be
highly dependent on the actual impact of climate change and sea level
rise, patterns of growth, development and future flood risk management
activity.
In detail
Climate change impacts on flooding and coastal erosion are a challenge
and risk for Defra and Operating Authorities (Environment Agency, local
authorities and internal drainage boards). These impacts include sea
level rise and the potential increase in intensity, severity and
frequency of coastal storms, and rainfall events affecting fluvial
catchments and urban surface water systems. Additionally, the south
east of England has been sinking and the north of the country rising
since the last ice age.
The Government’s 2004 Foresight Future Flooding report
took a long-term view of national flooding and coastal erosion risks to
2100. It estimated that future climate change (together with increased
economic wealth which increases losses) could lead to potentially
significant increases in future risk by the end of this century.
Changes will be highly dependent on the actual impact of climate change
and sea level rise, patterns of growth, development and future flood
risk management activity.
The potential change in storm surge magnitudes for
different coastal areas is the subject of current research, and
guidance will be kept under review as the results become available. In
the meantime long-term studies such as the Thames Estuary 2100 project (TE2100) are looking at a range of responses to potential future scenarios.
The UKCP09 climate change scenarios will provide further insight into
changes that may occur over the next century and these will be taken
into account in future guidance.
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