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How might my assumptions and choices alter the conclusions reached?
Whether using the climate data
or projections for communication, decision or policy making, or to
support research, informed use is critical. Users need to clearly
understand and appropriately consider the uncertainties in that use.
In detail
The climate data and projections
encapsulate some, but not all, of the uncertainty associated with the
climate they are intended to describe. Considering how uncertainties
accumulate and propagate, often depicted as a cascade of uncertainty, can help in understanding potential implications of choices made when using the resulting projections.
Uncertainties result from assumptions and decisions made in the
modelling process (e.g. those related to process representation within
the GCM and RCM
) and the projection development process (e.g. those made within the
statistical framework used in developing UKCP09 projections). Users
should also be aware and consider the implications of uncertainties
associated with the UKCP09 Weather Generator methodology and
assumptions. This cascade of uncertainty can be represented by the following diagram.
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One could decide to operate using the outputs at any one of these
levels. The associated uncertainty at each level reflects our best
judgement of the projected climate at the scale at which it was
developed and based on the methodology and associated assumptions used.
This concept can be used to understand potential implications of
choices made when using climate information. In the case of climate
projections, choices limiting the scope of the projections being
considered such as through considering one emission scenario and only a
portion of the associated projection (e.g. selected number of
probabilities) will restrict the portion of the uncertainty being used.
The choice(s) made may be appropriate for the particular
use and considering the associated risks and attitude to those risks.
It is important, however, that the implications of making those
decisions in the context of the intended use and required results are
clearly understood and articulated.
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Last Updated Tuesday, 11 January 2011 |
