What is meant by robust or flexible adaptation?

The use of probabilistic information might require a shift from seeking optimal solutions to exploring strategies that are robust or flexible – that is they provide reasonable solutions that are less sensitive to a wider range of outcomes or keep more options open.

In detail

The classical decision analysis approach has been to identify the optimal adaptation strategy based on accurate description of the current climate and predictions of the future. Considering the uncertainties in climate information, it has been suggested that the applicability and usefulness of this classical approach are somewhat limited when applied to climate impacts and adaptation assessments. In direct contrast to this classical approach are those which look to identifying resilient or adaptive strategies as they are seen to be especially appealing when making decisions and developing policies when faced with uncertainties.

Resilient strategies are those for which the goal is to identify adaptation options which perform reasonably well across the range of potential of future climate (and other circumstances) that are projected.

Flexible strategies or pathways are those for which identified adaptation measures are such that they perform reasonably well now and in the near future and can be modified or alternative complementary options introduced such that they perform reasonably well as the future unfolds (i.e. as one learns more about the future climate and other circumstances).

UKCP09 has been developed such that there are products and data sources that can be used to support both of these approaches and it is recommended that they be considered in identifying appropriate adaptation strategies and measures. The Reports & guidance pages discuss some potential methods and strategies for coping with uncertainty for the information proved by each UKCP09 product.