Is the modelling behind UKCP09 sound?

Yes.

In detail

The inclusion of an assessment of uncertainty is a central feature of the new projections and gives users much more information about the level of confidence they can have in different outcomes as well as encouraging a flexible approach to be able to deal with a range of future climates. For UKCP09, to ensure that users understand what has and has not been factored in to produce the results, users will be given guidance on the methodology used for the projections. This should enable users to analyse whether UKCP09, or another tool, is appropriate for the problem they are trying to address, so that they can make an informed adaptation decision.

Defra organised an expert review of the methodologies used in the probabilistic projections and the Weather Generator. A workshop with the reviewers followed this in January 2009. They confirmed that the methodologies used in UKCP09 were credible and represented a large step beyond UKCIP02.

Find out more

• Write up of the science review results (pdf, 15 KB)