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Does UKCP09 provide maps showing likely areas of flooding or inundation as a result of sea-level rise?

No, UKCP09 provides projections of how sea level might change but no exploration of the subsequent implications for coastal flooding.

In detail

The information UKCP09 provides on sea level change is based on a combination of regional projections of future sea level rise from global climate models and regional projections of future land movements (isostatic adjustments) for the UK.

The UKCP09 sea level projections do not attempt to predict what the consequences or impacts of this sea-level rise might be (in terms of areas inundated, financial damage, population displaced, etc). UKCP09 does not contain any information on extent of sea defences, demographics, and land use, and as such it cannot provide this information.

It is possible to plot a given contour that corresponds to a given amount of sea-level rise, and make an assumption that this is the area at risk from flooding. However, this will tend to give an over-simplified view. Since the UK has a large amount of infrastructure and development located in coastal floodplains, we can assume that many existing sea defences would be strengthened and new defences would be built as a response to sea level rise. Since we don't know which stretches of coastlines will be protected in future, and because we cannot say exactly what sea level rise will be in future, it is practically impossible to produce just one single scenario of how the UK might look by a certain time.

 

 

 

 
Last Updated Tuesday, 11 January 2011