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UKCP09 is composed of three strands of climate information:

• Probabilistic projections
• Marine and coastal projections
• Observed climate and climate trends

As the fifth generation of climate information for the UK, UKCP09 reflects advances in our understanding and in modelling of the climate system, in the ability to analyse the modelled outputs and in computing power. These advancements have allowed for greater quantification of uncertainty, integration of the results of climate models from centres other than Met Office Hadley Centre, and the inclusion of new developments such as carbon cycle feedback. They have also resulted in UKCP09 being able to offer more information about the future climate of the UK marine and coastal areas.

The projections are provided at seven 30-year time periods covering the period from 2010 to the end of this century and at a 25 km spatial resolution.

There is also an increased focus on the UK past and current climate, including trends. This is reflected in the provision of a special report on the climate of the UK and recent trends. In addition, UKCP09 provides a link to the Met Office website through which users will have access to more observed data and derived statistics than has previously been available.

UKCP09 has been purposely designed to provide information that allows users to obtain as much or as little information as they require. All of this information and the guidance to support it are available via this website.

UKCP09 information is organised into three layers:

1. Key findings – a description of the climate (observed and projected) for primary variables, both at the regional and national levels

2. Published material – the scientific reports; Observed trends, Climate projections report, Marine and Coastal Projections report, Weather Generator report, Briefing Report, User Guidance, and Pre-prepared maps and graphs. 

3. Customisable outputs – through the UKCP09 User Interface, users will be able to access and download the projections data, and generate and customise images (maps and plots) that meet their specific informed requirements. Through this interface, user will also be able to access the UKCP09 weather generator and its accompanying threshold detector.

Access to the observed data is available through the Met Office website. In addition to being enhanced in terms of number of variables and the addition of some daily data and derived statistics, users will find accessing the data much improved relative to that which was available for accessing previous generations of climate information.

UKCP09 represents a large step beyond UKCIP02. Principle innovations are associated with the probabilistic projections. Rather than presenting a single best estimate for each emission scenario, UKCP09 provides probabilistic projections under three different emission scenarios, and the probabilities represent the strength of evidence that supports a projected climate outcome.

Further innovations reflected in the projections are:

• The integration of the results from global climate models from other modelling centres (see Climate projections report for more detail), and
• The introduction of more information related to climate changes within UK marine and coastal areas, albeit a first step in some cases.
• The availability of UKCP09 resources online (UKCP09 website, User Guidance and a User Interface) with increased functionality and interconnectivity.  These online resources will support users in developing their understanding of UKCP09, its use and interpretation of conclusions drawn. By providing these resources online, offers opportunities for more effective additions of increased functionality and will help deliver future enhancements to UKCP09.

• Access to an integrated weather generator that allows users to explore the implications of plausible daily and hourly future time series at a spatial resolution of 5 km based on and consistent with the 25 km resolution probabilistic projections [see Weather Generator report and relevant sections of User Guidance prior to using].  Although there is no climate change information in the weather generator outputs beyond that in the 25 km probabilistic projections, when used appropriately they can be informative when assessing vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation strategies or options that require daily time series.

The methodologies used and the outputs available, particularly the probabilistic projections, are both complex and potentially powerful when used correctly. As such, to use UKCP09, users will also need to take a large step beyond UKCIP02 and this will be challenging for many.  A range of guidance and tools are offered to support users in rising to this challenge.

The science underlying UKCP09 has been the subject of peer review within the scientific literature (see references within the sciences reports).  In addition, to checking and verifying the methodology and outputs throughout their development, a peer review panel examined the methodologies used to produce the climate projections and the marine and coastal projections, as well as those to develop the weather generator tool, and found that they are credible using state-of-the-art science and methodologies. The team of reviewers also noted that the work carried out was of high standard and represented a large step beyond UKCIP02. 

The scientific reports and user guidance have benefited from recommendations to improve the description and communications of the methodologies and assumptions, including the implications for use. 

Futher papers are to be published bringing together the complete methodology and users will be advised of these through this website. 

Online User Guidance is provided to facilitate uptake and sensible use of the suite of climate information available in UKCP09. Users should read this guidance, including the specific guidance provided for the products and data sources being considered, prior to their use. For a clear understanding of the implications of appropriate and inappropriate use of the methodology, examples of ways in which the information can be and should not be used have been provided as a further guide.

In addition, there is specific guidance and further information that can be accessed within the User Interface to support and guide selections and decisions required to assemble your customised outputs.

UKCP09 is the result of a collaborative effort involving a number of organisations and individuals who have worked on a range of tasks and responsibilities to prepare UKCP09 for launch. This collaborative effort has resulted in a wide range of expertise being brought to bear in deliverying UKCP09 that is both scientifically sound and directed at offering information aimed at supporting users.

UKCP09 will evolve based on experience gained and the need for improved and new functionality – in many ways this is just the beginning. The nature and scope of available products, data sources and supportive analytical tools, however, will evolve with new ones being added and existing ones modified, as well as in some cases their functionality being increased.

Some of these enhancements will be delivered as UKCP09 extras. The aim of these extras is to facilitate and stimulate more effective use and greater uptake of UKCP09.

The User Guidance and science reports will also evolve following launch with periodic updates reflecting these evolutions and the addition of the extras. Users should ensure that they are using the most up-to-date versions of the User Guidance and science reports. The online User Guidance and science reports will include a date and will always be the most current version.  For further information on the process associated with this evolution, see Looking Forward