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Data source: Probabilistic climate projections (land) |
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UKCP09 Guidance
Data sources
Summary of data sources
Projections
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What are they?
The probabilistic climate change projections are the result of an innovative modelling approach which explores the uncertainty in the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, by generating a number of perturbed physics ensembles (PPE). This is a major advance and represents one of the few examples of using PPE to generate climate projections. In addition, the projections include the results of other IPCC climate models, are available at a spatial resolution of 25 km, are multi-variate in nature and are available for a range of temporal-averaging periods. They are also constrained by a wide range of observations of past climate. As such, the UKCP09 climate change projections represent a rich resource They provide projections of climate change, and absolute future climate for:
- Annual, seasonal and monthly climate averages.
- Individual 25 km grid squares and for certain pre-defined aggregated areas.
- Seven 30 year time periods: 2010-2039, 2020-2049, 2030-2059, 2040-2069, 2050-2079, 2060-2089, 2070-2099.
- Three emissions scenarios, low (IPCC SRES: B1), medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and high (IPCC
SRES: A1FI).
- Projections of climate change are based on change relative to a 1961–1990 baseline.
For more information on the probabilistic projections see Chapters 1, 2 and 3 of the Probabilistic Climate Change Projections report.
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