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Why is the 1961–1995 baseline used by the UKCP09 Weather Generator when there have been important weather events since?
The 1961–1990 period is a common baseline that
is used accross all of UKCP09. To fit in with this remit observed
rainfall from 1961 to 1990 and other variables from 1961 to 1995 were used to
train the Weather Generator.
In detail
The weather generator was calibrated using observed daily rainfall
totals and values of other weather variables for a baseline climate. This incorporated the years 1961–1990 for rainfall and 1961–1995
for the other variables.
It was decided to use the 1961–1990 baseline for the probabilistic projections through a user consultation
before modelling began. For the Weather Generator a slightly longer
baseline period was used. The hourly and daily data availability
through BADC is better and more consistent for 1961–1995 than for a more recent period (such as 1971–2000 or 1976–2005).
The baseline period is used by the Weather Generator as a way of
deriving statistics that describe daily climate. Consequently, these
statistics tend to be fairly insensitive to specific extreme events
meaning capturing the most recent weather is not necessarily that
critical.
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Last Updated Tuesday, 11 January 2011 |
