UKCP09 Briefing report

June 2009  ISBN 978-1-906360-04-7

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Geoff Jenkins, James Murphy, David Sexton, Jason Lowe Met Office Hadley Centre, Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia and Chris Kilsby University of Newcastle

Reviewers

• Dr Paul Bowyer, UKCIP, Oxford
• Dr Mark Broadmeadow, Forestry Commission (England), Farnham
• Dr Vic Crisp, Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London
• Dr Suraje Dessai, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich
• Dr Stephen Dye, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft
• Prof. Sir Brian Hoskins, University of Reading, Reading
• Kathryn Humphrey, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra, London
• Kay Jenkinson, UKCIP, Oxford
• Prof. Phil Jones, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich
• Dr Jenny Maresh, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra, London
• Dr Barry McAuley, Department of the Environment Northern Ireland, Belfast
• Lyndsey Middleton, UKCIP, Oxford
• Prof. John Mitchell, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
• Robin Mortimer, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra
• Dr Anastasia Mylona, Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London
• Kathryn Packer, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra, London
• Anna Steynor, UKCIP, Oxford
• Roger Street, UKCIP, Oxford
• Andrew Tucker, Greater London Authority, London
• Prof. Robert Watson, Chief Scientific Advisor, Defra, London
• Dr Glen Watts, Environment Agency, Bristol
• Dr Olly Watts, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy
• Guy Winter, Scottish Executive, Edinburgh

Reviewers’ comments have been extremely valuable in improving the final draft of this report. However, not all changes requested by all reviewers have been accepted by the authors, and the final report remains the responsibility of the authors.

The authors would like to thank the contributors and review groups to the four UKCP09 science reports on which this Briefing Report has been based.

The authors would like to acknowledge the original suggestion from Professor Alan Thorpe, when Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, for a project to quantify uncertainty using large climate model ensembles, without which the UKCP09 Probabilistic Projections would not have been possible.

Discussions with Prof. Jonathan Rougier, University of Bristol, have encouraged us to adopt the methodology for the UKCP09 Probabilistic Projections.