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Published material
Climate change projections
Summary
1 Introduction & overview
2 Why do we need probabilistic information?
3 The construction of probabilistic climate change projections
4 Probabilistic projections of seasonal climate changes
5 Projections from the ensemble of regional climate models
Annexes
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Climate change projections
June 2009 ISBN 978-1-906360-02-3
Version 2, amended July 2nd 2009
James Murphy, David Sexton, Geoff Jenkins, Penny Boorman, Ben Booth, Kate Brown, Robin Clark, Mat Collins, Glen Harris, Lizzie Kendon. Met Office Hadley Centre.
Annexes: Richard Betts, Simon Brown, Tim Hinton, Tom Howard, Ruth McDonald, Mark McCarthy, Richard Wood, Met Office Hadley Centre, Kathryn Humphrey, Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Ag Stephens, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Craig Wallace, National Oceanography Centre, Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia, Rob Wilby, Loughborough University
Reviewers
- Dr Richard Betts, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
- Dr Rachel Capon, Arup, London
- Dr Vic Crisp, Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, London
- Dr Suraje Dessai, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich
- Dr Bill Donovan, Environment Agency, Bristol
- Dr Stephen Dye, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft
- Dr Clare Goodess, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich
- Karl Hardy, Flood and Coastal Erosion Research Management, Defra, London
- Kathryn Humphrey, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra, London
- Kay Jenkinson, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Kay Johnstone, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Prof. Phil Jones, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich
- Dr Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
- Richard Lamb, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Gerry Metcalf, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Prof. John Mitchell, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
- Laurie Newton, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Maeve O’Donoghue, Welsh Assembly Government, Cardiff
- Kathryn Packer, Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Defra, London
- Dr Vicky Pope, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
- Peter Singleton, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Stirling
- Ag Stephens, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Abingdon
- Anna Steynor, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Roger Street, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Prof. Rowan Sutton, University of Reading
- Dr Stephen Wade, HR Wallingford, Wallingford
- Dr Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich
- Dr Glen Watts, Environment Agency, Bristol
- Dr Olly Watts, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy
- Dr Chris West, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Richard Westaway, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford
- Prof. Rob Wilby, Loughborough University
- Guy Winter, Scottish Government, Edinburgh
Second stage international review
- Prof. Myles Allen, University of Oxford
- Prof. Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
- Dr Clare Goodess, Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich
- Prof. Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, Princeton, USA
- Prof. Francis Zwiers, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada
Reviewers’ comments have been extremely valuable in improving the final draft of this report. However, not all changes requested by all reviewers have been accepted by the authors, and the final report remains the responsibility of the authors.
The authors would like to acknowledge the original suggestion from Professor Alan Thorpe (when Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre) for a project to quantify uncertainty using large climate model ensembles, without which the UKCP09 probabilistic projections would not have been possible.
Discussions with Prof. Jonathan Rougier, University of Bristol, have encouraged us to adopt the methodology for the UKCP09 Probabilistic Projections.
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