|
| |
|
|
Why aren't only those model versions that best represent the historical climate used in the ensemble?
Comparing model simulations of climate and
climate change with those from observations is a recognised validation
technique. All models have errors and even those with larger errors
can still give useful information; there is no cutoff between good and
bad models. For this reason, it is important to include all model
versions in the ensemble.
In detail
Although validating against historical climate is a recognised way of
weighting models, we have to make an assumption that the model
weighting based on historical observations can also be applied to
projections for the future.
|
|
You may also be
interested in…
|
|
|
|
Last Updated Tuesday, 11 January 2011 |