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UKCP09 in practice: Leeds City Council |
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UKCP09 Guidance
UKCP09 in practice
Keywords for this example:
LCLIP, vulnerability, weather generator, city council
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UKCP09 Guidance to perform a Local Climate Impacts Profile
Objectives: To assess Leeds city's current vulnerability to climate impacts and hence develop an adaptation plan for future climate change that draws on past experience about vulnerable areas.
- It was assumed that any winter month with wet soil conditions, followed by 50mm of rainfall in one day might lead to fluvial flooding in the catchment.
- 100 runs of the weather generator were completed for both the baseline and future time periods.
- The threshold detector was used to determine both the frequency of the known threshold (as outlined in step1) being exceeded in the baseline and how it may change in the future data.
- From the information gained for the threshold detector analysis, a cost-benefit risk assessment could be undertaken, possibly using the internal city council risk assessment approaches used for developing the community risk register.
- Might undertake a roadshow educating other groups of services within the Leeds City Council on how to conduct their own risk assessment.
- If observed daily rainfall data had been available, the baseline weather generator run could have been compared with the observed climate data sets to see how well the observed baseline compares with the modelled weather generator baseline. There should not be a big difference as the weather generator is based on the observed data sets.
- Learnt that the threshold detector will not substitute for a detailed rainfall-runoff model (as previously thought). However, it will provide complimentary information for performing a risk assessment.
- It would have been useful to specify a preceding accumulated winter monthly rainfall threshold value, to ensure wet soil conditions (e.g., more than 100mm). This example had to assume that that there would be wet soil conditions during winter months.
Contact details: David Cherry, Development Department, Leeds City Council
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Selections made:
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