Does the Weather Generator take into account spatial correlations between neighbouring grid squares?
No, the Weather Generator runs are stochastic. This means that if two separate Weather Generator runs are run for neighbouring 5 km grid squares,
the exact sequence of daily Weather Generator output will be different
and will not correlate (i.e. it might be raining in one grid square but
not in its neighbours).
In detail
Although you will not be able to assess spatial correlations with the Weather Generator, the 11-member RCM (available through BADC LINK, see Find out more, below) will allow you to assess these aspects across adjacent 25 km grid cells
on a daily basis. Due to the fact that these projections have been
modelled using a regional climate model, the projections are both transient in nature and spatially correlate across grid cells.
However, it must be remembered that this product is just a by-product
of the UKCP09 modelling process and is not user-friendly, nor is it
available from the UKCP09 User Interface.
The RCM data only has 11 runs of the model, therefore
doesn't incorporate as robust an assessment of uncertainty as the
UKCP09 probabilistic projections. Lastly the RCM projections only reflect projections from the Met Office Hadley Centre model and do not incorporate projections from any other Global Climate Models.
Find out more
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