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Does UKCP09 consider changes to the Gulf Stream (Meridional Overturing Circulation)?
Yes. The Meridional Overturning Circulation, or
MOC, in the North Atlantic is represented in all the full coupled
atmosphere-ocean global climate models used in UKCP09.
In detail
Future projections suggest that MOC strength (sometimes less accurately called the Gulf Stream) will reduce under all three emissions scenarios
used in UKCP09 by 2100. This leads to a corresponding decrease in the
amount of heat transported towards the UK, but this is more than offset
by the direct greenhouse warming. The projections in UKCP09 all take
into account the reductions of the MOC strength. In fact, none of the
standard Met Office Hadley Centre model simulations (and indeed none of the global climate models used in the IPCC AR4) show a complete shut-down of the MOC by 2100.
Annex 5
in the Climate Projections report provides a commentary about what
climate model projections tell us about potential future changes to the
MOC.
Some extreme projections of climate change (but none
from comprehensive climate models) suggest that with further climate
change the MOC could shut down. If this were to happen, average
temperatures in the would drop by some 4°C, but this remains a very unlikely prospect, at least for the next century.
The MOC in the North Atlantic is part of the Global Thermohaline Circulation
and is sometimes mistakenly confused with the Gulf Stream which plays a
role within the MOC but is not the full overturning circulation.
Find out more
- The MCCIP Annual Report Card discusses the large scale circulation of the North Atlantic including aspects of the Gulf Stream and MOC.
- UK
Research into the Atlantic MOC and Global Thermohaline circulation is
active and ongoing particularly through the NERC-funded RAPID research
programme and through various Defra, Scottish Government and EU
programmes at institutes, universities and agencies around the UK
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