Defra logo
  • Other defra.gov.uk sites
 
UK Climate Projections logo    

   

Why do I need to run the Weather Generator 100 times?

Sampling at a number of different points across the full UKCP09 probabilistic distribution allows a range of plausible outcomes to be explored.

In detail

Instead of using a single change factor, the UKCP09 Weather Generator is driven by mutliple samples (at least 100) from the UKCP09 probabilistic distribution. This process extracts many change factors to perturb the baseline data to get many realisations of future daily climate. This means that instead of getting a single time series of future data you will get, for example, 100 plausible time series of future daily climate. 

  You may also be
interested in…
 
 
 

wgen-pdf.jpg

 
Imagine that there are more than 100 red dots on the PDF above. This illustrates how the Weather Generator randomly samples off the PDF to get change factors to perturb the observed data sets. By sampling in this way it enables the output to represent a wide spread of percentile values and represents the entire probability distribution.

 

Last Updated Sunday, 02 January 2011