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Why do I need to run the Weather Generator 100 times?
Sampling at a number of different points across
the full UKCP09 probabilistic distribution allows a range of plausible
outcomes to be explored.
In detail
Instead of using a single change factor, the UKCP09 Weather Generator
is driven by mutliple samples (at least 100) from the UKCP09
probabilistic distribution. This process extracts many change factors
to perturb the baseline data to get many realisations of future daily climate.
This means that instead of getting a single time series of future data
you will get, for example, 100 plausible time series of future daily
climate.
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| Imagine that there are more than 100 red dots on the PDF
above. This illustrates how the Weather Generator randomly samples off
the PDF to get change factors to perturb the observed data sets.
By sampling in this way it enables the output to represent a wide
spread of percentile values and represents the entire probability distribution.
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Last Updated Sunday, 02 January 2011 |