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How is the UKCP09 Weather Generator different from other weather generators?
The UKCP09 Weather Generator is the first weather generator to incorporate probabilistic input.
In detail
The probabilistic input is incorporated by using mutliple samples (at
least 100) from the UKCP09 probabilistic distribution to generate
change factors. This process extracts many change factors to perturb the baseline data
to get many realisations of future daily climate. This means that
instead of getting a single time series of future data you will get,
for example, 100 plausible time series of future daily climate.
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Imagine that there are more than 100 red dots on the PDF
above. This illustrates how the Weather Generator randomly samples off
the PDF to get change factors to perturb the baseline climate. By
sampling in this way it enables the output to represent a wide spread
of percentile values and represents the entire probability distribution.
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Last Updated Wednesday, 15 December 2010 |
