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Reference: Emissions scenario |
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Emissions scenario
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A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances (e.g. greenhouse gases and aerosols) that can affect the radiative balance of the globe. These representations are based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about determining factors (such as demographic and socio-economic development, technological change) and their key relationships. The emissions scenarios used in UKCP09 do not include the effects of planned mitigation policies, but do assume different pathways of technological and economic growth which include a switch from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy.
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In detail
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Modelling of future climate change requires estimation of future levels of emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances such as aerosols and aerosol precursors. Future emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems, determined by factors such as population change, socio-economic development, and technological advances. Uncertainty about future emissions is one source of uncertainty associated with the modelling of future climate change.
In the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakićenović et al., 2000), new emissions scenarios – the so-called SRES scenarios – were published.
In UKCP09, projections are developed under three different emissions scenarios, two of which come from the A1 storyline, and one from the B1 storyline developed by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Within UKCP09 the emission scenarios are labelled based on their relative greenhouse gas emissions levels – High (SRES A1FI), Medium (SRES A1B) and Low (SRES B1) – and comprise a wide range but not the full set of SRES emissions scenarios.
An emissions scenario is one of the elements required when preparing a request within the UKCP09 User Interface.
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Find out more
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- UKCP09 Projections report section 2.4 on emissions uncertainty
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