Climate simulation

The simulated response of the climate system to emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based on simulations by climate models. 

In detail

A projection of the response of the climate system to concentrations or emissions scenarios, based upon climate model simulations, and in UKCP09, based on a large ensemble of model runs and weighted by observations. Values describe the climate system in absolute terms (e.g. without reference to a baseline climate). In UKCP09 climate projections are generated from climate change projections added to the baseline climate.

• Further explanation is provided in Box 1.1 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.