Key findings for Scotland West, 2080s

High emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 3.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 4.8ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 4.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 6.8ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 5.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 9.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 9.2ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 4.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 7.4ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is –1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –12% and is very unlikely to be more than 10%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –12% to 10%.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 30%; it is very unlikely to be less than 12% and is very unlikely to be more than 55%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 6% to 55%.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –20%; it is very unlikely to be less than –39% and is very unlikely to be more than –1%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –39% to 3%.