Key findings for Scotland West, 2080s

Medium emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 4.8ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 6.8ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 4.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 9.2ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 7.4ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is –1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –9% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –12% to 10%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 21%; it is very unlikely to be less than 6% and is very unlikely to be more than 42%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 6% to 55%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –16%; it is very unlikely to be less than –33% and is very unlikely to be more than 1%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –39% to 3%.