Key findings for Scotland West, 2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 4.8ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 6.8ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 9.2ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 7.4ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –7% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –12% to 10%.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 20%; it is very unlikely to be less than 6% and is very unlikely to be more than 37%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 6% to 55%.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –12%; it is very unlikely to be less than –26% and is very unlikely to be more than 3%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –39% to 3%.