Key findings for Scotland West, 2050s

Medium emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.3ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.4ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 5.9ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.7ºC.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is –1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –7% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –8% to 6%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 15%; it is very unlikely to be less than 5% and is very unlikely to be more than 29%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –1% to 31%.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –13%; it is very unlikely to be less than –27% and is very unlikely to be more than 1%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –28% to 6%.