Key findings for Scotland West, 2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.3ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.4ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 5.9ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.7ºC.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is –2%; it is very unlikely to be less than –8% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –8% to 6%.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 10%; it is very unlikely to be less than –1% and is very unlikely to be more than 23%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –1% to 31%.

• Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –10%; it is very unlikely to be less than –25% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –28% to 6%.