Key findings for Scotland North, 2020s

High emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.1ºC to 2ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.1ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.3ºC to 2.8ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.3ºC.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is –1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –6% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –6% to 5%.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 4%; it is very unlikely to be less than –5% and is very unlikely to be more than 14%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –5% to 14%.

• Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –2%; it is very unlikely to be less than –12% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –15% to 8%.