4.3.4 Projected changes to seasonal mean temperature over marine regions

Probabilistic projections of changes to winter- and summer-mean air temperature over the seas surrounding the UK, averaged over the nine marine regions, are shown in Figure 4.6.

Changes in air temperature in all cases are larger in the south and smaller in the north; this reflects the degree to which the marine regions are affected by proximity to continents or open oceans. As climate changes, land is projected to warm faster than oceans. Hence the marine regions closer to continental regions (for example, the Eastern English Channel) will warm faster because they are influenced by the nearby continent. More northern marine regions (for example, the Atlantic NW Approaches) will warm at a slower rate because they are influenced more by nearby ocean regions.

Note that, even by the 2080s, the 10% probability level shows small reductions in surface air temperature in the Atlantic NW Approaches in both seasons. This reflects the effect on temperatures of the large natural internal variability of climate. At the 10% probability level, this natural variability can more than offset the rather modest warming from human activities in these regions.