Climate projection

Climate projections expressed in terms of absolute values (as opposed to the relative value expressed in future climate change projections).

In detail

A projection of the response of the climate system to emission scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios based upon climate model simulations and past observations. Climate change projections are expressed as an absolute future climate, for example, that future average daily temperature in the summer will be 34°C for a given location, time period and emissions scenario.

• The Met Office Hadley Centre have developed a methodology to provide probabilistic climate projections.

• Further explanation is provided in Box 1.1 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.

• The UKCP09 User Interface allows the UKCP09 probabilistic projections to be provided as either future absolute climate or as change from the 1961–1990 baseline climate.

• Last updated: Sunday, 11 March 2012