Climate projections expressed in terms of absolute values (as opposed to the relative value expressed in future climate change projections).
A projection of the response of the climate system to emission scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios based upon climate model simulations and past observations. Climate change projections are expressed as an absolute future climate, for example, that future average daily temperature in the summer will be 34°C for a given location, time period and emissions scenario.
- The Met Office Hadley Centre have developed a methodology to provide probabilistic climate projections.
- Further explanation is provided in Box 1.1 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.