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UKCP09 marine & coastal projections

UKCP09 provides a diverse package of information on potential changes in marine and coastal environments, comprising changes in sea level, storm surges, water temperatures and salinity, shelf currents and offshore waves. The results cover both the coastline of the UK and the shelf seas (the area of relatively shallow sea around the UK).

In detail

The maritime and coastal environments play an important role in the UK’s culture and economy. Plausible estimates of how this environment will change in the future as the global climate adjusts to rising greenhouse gas concentrations are vital for adaptation planning.

The previous set of UK climate scenarios, UKCIP02, only contained limited information on sea level rise and a projection of changes in the extreme water levels based on a single climate model. UKCP09 provides a far more comprehensive set of projections, an important feature of which is their degree of consistency. They are created using the same atmospheric climate model to provide inputs to the shelf sea models of storm surges, waves, temperature and salinity. This makes it possible, for the first time, to look at the joint occurrence of different types of marine and coastal change.

The UKCP09 marine and coastal projections comprise:



  • Changes in extreme surges: Summarised in Section 6.3.2 of the Briefing report and explained in more detail in Chapter 4 of the Marine & coastal projections report.

  • Climate-driven changes in offshore waves: Summarised in Section 6.3.3 of the Briefing report and explained in more detail in Chapter 5 of the Marine & coastal projections report.

  • Changes in multi-level ocean variables: Summarised in Section 6.3.4 of the Briefing report and explained in more detail in Chapter 6 of the Marine & coastal projections report.

  • Some worked examples were developed prior to the launch of UKCP09 that used dummy outputs to examine how the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections might be used. The worked examples should not be interpreted as a best practice method for using UKCP09, but as one way of using the outputs.