Risk is conventionally defined as the combination of the likelihood of an occurrence of an event or exposure(s) and the severity of injury or cost that can be caused by the event or exposure(s).
Understanding the risks and thresholds, including uncertainties, associated with climate change is one principle of good adaptation. Previous UK climate projections allowed climatic impacts to be identified and quantified, however they provided limited information about risks (i.e. the likelihood of occurrence).
In part as a response to this, UKCP09 provides probabilistic projections. The shape of the probabilistic distributions can be used to provide more detailed information about the relative likelihood of different amounts of projected change. Probabilistic climate projections can therefore be developed into formal risk assessments using approaches that can handle probabilistic information, such as Monte Carlo analysis.
Find out more
- Risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework produced by UKCIP/Environment Agency