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Multi-level ocean projections

Information provided in UKCP09 that describe projected changes to the hydrography and circulation of the north-west European Continental shelf.

In detail

UKCP09 reports on projected changes in temperature, salinity, and currents of the water-column in the seas around the British Isles. The projections are taken from two model experiments of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) for the time periods of 1961–1990 and 2070–2099. Projections are again available at a resolution of 12 km but no information on uncertainty is given with these projections as these experiments have so far been undertaken with driving meteorology from a single member of the Met Office RCM ensemble.

  • The multi-level ocean projections are summarised in Section 6.3.4 of the UKCP09 Briefing report with more details in Chapter 6 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report.

  • Some worked examples were developed prior to the launch of UKCP09 that used dummy outputs to examine how the UKCP09 marine & coastal projections might be used. The worked examples should not be interpreted as a best practice method for using UKCP09, but as one way of using the outputs.

Find out more

  • Holt, J., Wakelin, S., Lowe, J. A. and Tinker, J. (2010). The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf. Progress In Oceanography 86(3–4): 361–379.