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Chartered Institute of Building Services Engineers / Arup worked example

Objectives: To consider how UKCP09 may be used in simulating the thermal properties of buildings under the future climate. The range of projections is used to explore overheating risk in a living room of a 1930s semi-detached house, both with and without adaptation measures.

  • How they used UKCP09 dummy data

The change factors for future temperature were extracted from the underlying data accompanying the UK maps for the averaging period, location, emission scenarios, probability levels and time periods specified alongside.  The change factors are the difference between the the baseline climate and the projected future climate.

The monthly change factors were used to adjust (morph) the CIBSE design summer year (baseline) for July, to get future projections.  This was done by adding the monthly change factors to the daily data that CIBSE use, in their modeling, to represent a typical current July at a daily timescale.

The morphed weather data was used to model 3 cases:

  • Base case of a completely unadapted house;
  • House with climate change adaptation measures retrofitted;
  • House cooled using air conditioning.

The effectiveness of adaptation measures for the 3 cases was compared with reference to the likely range of the climate change projections.

  • What could they do next?
  • By modeling all 3 cases they would be able to compare the effectiveness of adaptation measures and the risk associated with each climate change projection.
  • Recommendations could be made on the most financially beneficial options.
  • What they learnt about UKCP09
  • Careful presentation is needed to convey probabilistic information accurately but in a manner which users can understand
  • Contact details: Rachel Capon, ARUP; Anastasia Mylona, CIBSE