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Online climate change projections report Annex 2.6 References

Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. & Delworth, T. L. (2000) Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 407, 617–620.

Christensen, J. H., Carter, T. R., Rummukainen, M. & Amanatidis, G. (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change, 81, 1–6.

Frame, D.J. et al. (2005) Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L09702. (doi:10.1029/2004GL022241).

Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337–3353.

Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L. & Roeckner, E. (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84–88.

Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Allen, M. R. & Stainforth, D. A. (2006) Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19, 4224–4233.

Piani, C., Frame, D.J., Stainforth, D. A. & Allen, M. R. (2005) Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L23825.

Rougier, J. C. & Sexton, D. M. H. (2007) Inference in ensemble experiments. Philosphical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 2133–2144.

Sanderson, B. M., Piani, C., Ingram, W. J., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. (2008) Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations. Climate Dynamics, 30, 175–190.

Smith, D. M., Cusack, S., Colman, A. W., Folland, C. K., Harris, G. R. & Murphy, J. M. (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796–799.

Stott, P. A. & Kettleborough, J. A. (2002) Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature, 416, 723–726.

Stott, P. A., Kettleborough, J. A. & Allen, M. R. (2006a) Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L02708.

Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Allen, M. R., Delworth, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Meehl, G. A. & Santer, B. D. (2006b) Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 3055–3069.

Tebaldi, C. & Knutti, R. (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosphical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 2053–2076.

Williams, K. D. et al. (2005) Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models. Climate Dynamics, 26, 145–165.

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