Online climate change projections report PDFs & spatial averaging
PDFs are available for each individual 25 km square, and also for two types of aggregated land areas: administrative regions and river basins. The change over an administrative region (for example, N Scotland) will, by definition, smooth out the variation from square to square seen in the 25 km resolution map. The PDFs for administrative regions are provided because it is not possible for users to create these for themselves by simply averaging the PDFs of changes for constituent 25 km squares.
Figure 4.21 shows the PDF for the administrative regional average and, in contrast, the PDFs for two grid squares within in having particularly high and low changes compared to the mean. The variability from square to square will be mainly due to factors such as mountain and coastal effects but also, as explained earlier, reflect the varying relative influences of different causes of uncertainty at different locations.
| Figure 4.21: Change in winter-mean precipitation (%) by the 2080s under the High emissions scenario. PDF for the North Scotland administrative region (green) compared with PDFs for the 25 km squares in the region projected to experience a relatively high (red) and low (blue) change at 90% probability. | |
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- Last updated: Sunday, 11 March 2012