Online climate change projections report 4.4.1 PDFs & emissions scenarios

Figure 4.18 shows that, for the first future time period (2020s), the PDF are very similar for each of the three emissions scenarios. In part this is due to the long effective lifetime of CO2 and the inertia of the climate system and in part due to the offsetting effects of increases in greenhouse gases and in sulphur dioxide emissions (which produce sulphate aerosols that cool climate) in the three emissions scenarios.

Unlike Figure 4.18, Figure 4.19 shows that, by the time period of the 2080s, the differences in the PDFs of summer mean daily maximum temperature between the three emissions scenarios are well marked. They still overlap substantially, showing that uncertainties associated with emissions, whilst important, do not dominate those associated with projecting climate response. Differences may be more or less pronounced in other variables.

Figure 4.18 : PDFs of change in summer-mean daily maximum temperature in SE England for the Low (green), Medium (purple) and High (black) emissions scenarios, for the 2020s. (Note that this is an example graphic taken directly from the User Interface, showing the plot details in a box above the plot).
Figure 4.19: as Figure 4.16a but for the period of the 2080s.
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• Last updated: Sunday, 11 March 2012