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Online climate change projections report 4.4 Influence of user choices

In this Section we show some probabilistic projections, generally in the form of PDFs of changes in climate. In the User Interface, the user can make choices using the following selection criteria:
emissions scenario (Low, Medium and High);

  • future time period (7 overlapping 30-year periods from 2010–2039 to 2070–2099);
  • spatial averaging (25 km grid square, administrative region, river basin or marine region);
  • temporal averaging (generally month, season, annual);
  • geographical location;
  • variable; and
  • change in climate, or future climate.

We compare below the PDFs which result from a number of these choices; Table 4.7 lists these and the figures that illustrate them. In general, the comparisons hold other choices fixed at a setting which maximises the differences between the choices being compared, in most cases this is for the 2080s under the High emissions scenario. We illustrate these comparisons using temperature and precipitation quantities.

Note that, with the exception of those for the three different emission scenarios (as shown in Figures 4.18 and 4.19), the User Interface cannot combine different PDFs on the same plot. We have combined them in this Section to highlight differences.

 

 

        Table 4.7: Comparisons shown in this chapter which explore the sensitivity of PDFs to various user choices of emissions scenario, future time period, spatial average, temporal average and location. Locations have been chosen to give a wide geographical spread, but are not aimed to be comprehensive or representative.          
Figure
Sensitivity explored
Variable used as example
Emission scenario
Time periods
Spatial average
Temporal average
Location
4.18
4.19 		Emissions scenario
 Maximum temperature
 L, M, H
 2020s
2080s
 Administrative region
 Summer
 SE England
4.20
 Time period
 Minimum temperature
 H
 2020s
2050s
2080s
 Administrative region Winter W Scotland
4.21
 Spatial average
 Wettest day of the season
 H
 2080s Administrative region,
25 km
 Winter
 N Scotland
4.22 Temporal average
 Precipitation
 H
 2080s Administrative region
January, winter
 NW England
4.23
 Location (Administrative region)
 Mean temperature H
 2080s Administrative region Summer
 SE England, Wales,
N Scotland, N Ireland
4.24 Location
(25 km)
 Mean temperature
H
 2080s 25 km
 Summer
 in Kent, Cardiff, Shetland, Co Down
4.25
 Variable
Mean temperature, Maximum temperature, Warmest day of the season
 H 2080s Administrative region Summer
 SW England
4.26
 Climate change or future climate
 Maximum temperature
 H 2080s 25 km
 Summer
 in East of England
     

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