Online Briefing report 5.2 Changes in marine air temperature

Figure 10 shows projections of changes into the seasonal-mean air temperature over the nine around the UK, at the 10, 50 and 90% probability levels. Changes in temperature in all cases are larger in the south and smaller in the north; this pattern is also seen over land and reflects the degree to which areas are affected by proximity to continents or open oceans. Note that, even by the 2080s under the highest emission scenario, the 10% probability level shows projected reductions in mean air temperature in the Atlantic NW Approaches in both seasons; in summer, cooling also extends to the Scottish Continental Shelf area. This reflects the effect on temperatures of the large natural internal variability of climate; at the 10% probability level, this natural variability could more than offset the rather modest warming from human activities in these regions.

 

 

      Figure 10: 10, 50 and 90% probability levels of changes to winter-mean (top) and summer-mean (bottom) air temperature over marine regions under Medium emissions by the 2080s. Each marine region is overprinted with its corresponding change in temperature (ºC).            

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• Last updated: Sunday, 11 March 2012