The sources of uncertainty in the marine and coastal projections relate to atmospheric physics, stratospheric resolution, the carbon and methane cycle uncertainty, emissions uncertainty, ocean physics uncertainty and the H++ scenario.
In detail
The table below illustrates which sources of uncertainty (rows) have been addressed in each UKCP09 Marine projections product (column).
| | | |
Source of uncertainty
| UKCP09 Marine Scenarios Product
| Sea level
| Surge
| Hydrography
| Waves
| Atmospheric physics
| Large scale cloud
| M
| P
| 1
| 3
| Convection
| M | P | 1
| 3
| Radiation
| M | P | 1
| 3 | Boundary layer
| M | P | 1
| 3
| Dynamics
| M | P | 1
| 3
| Land surface processes
| M | P | 1
| 3
| Sea ice
| M | P | 1
| 3
| Stratospheric resolution
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| Carbon and methane cycle uncertainty
| 1
| 1
| 1
| 1
| Emissions uncertainty
| E
| 1
| 1
| 1
| Ocean physics uncertainty
| M
| 1
| 1
| 1
| H++
| O
| M
| –
| –
| |
| | | |
| The key is as follows.
P: uncertainty addressed using the perturbed physics ensemble.
M: uncertainty addressed using the multi-model ensemble.
E: emissions uncertainty addressed by presenting simulations for the three UKCP09 scenarios, High, Medium and Low.
O: uncertainty addressed using observations and other evidence.
3: indicates that a crude assessment of uncertainty based only on three ensemble members has been made.
1: only 1 climate model simulation has been used in this projection, thus providing a first look at the plausible outcome but not attempting to quantify uncertainty.
–: indicates no was developed for this product.
None of these symbols imply that a full range of uncertainty from the source has necessarily been evaluated.
For more information on how uncertainty is illustrated in the marine projections see the Marine & coastal projections report. | | |
