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Why shouldn't I download a single map?

A single map can only show the projected changes associated with a single emissions scenario and probability level. This means that by using a single map the full range of possible climate outcomes as described by UKCP09 could easily be overlooked. It is important to recognise that maps produced with different probability levels and emissions scenarios will provide different projections of future changes.

In detail

If you are using maps to illustrate possible climate outcomes then we would recommend you show multiple maps that show the range of the projections, for example maps of the 10%, 50% and 90% probability levels for a particular emissions  scenario, or across more than one emissions scenario.

If a single map (and therefore a single probability level) is used, it should be clearly stated which has been used and why, and recognised that this choice will constrain the range of future climate outcomes that are considered.

An alternative visualisation of the probabilistic range of projections can be obtained for a specified location (grid square) or UKCP09 region and specified emissions scenario and 30-year time period using the associated or Cumulative Distribution Function plots and the underlying CDF data. These plots, although limited to a single location or UKCP09 region have the advantage that they can show characteristics (shape and probability levels associated with the projected change values) across the projected distribution in the form of a graph. Additionally, these location or UKCP09 region plots can be produced to show all three emissions scenario on a single image, thereby providing an opportunity to see the affects of the emissions scenarios on the projections for that climate variable.