Online Marine & coastal projections 7 Thames Estuary 2100
The Environment Agency set up the project to provide a plan to manage flood risk in the Thames Estuary for the next 100 yr. Central to this is adapting to the uncertain effects of climate change. This will drive changes to sea level, storm surge height and frequency, and river flows. The project commissioned work with the Met Office Hadley Centre, the and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology to try to better understand the uncertainties surrounding these changes. This has provided a major contribution to the UKCP09 Marine report.
The work confirms that it will be essential to monitor the rate and progress of key climate change effects such as ice sheet melt and develop better predictive science to support this. The TE2100 project’s success will depend on monitoring and adjusting as the century progresses.
- New projections of the likely range of future mean sea level around the Thames Estuary approximately agree with current Defra planning advice. An additional enhanced ice sheet contribution could cause mean sea levels to rise by up to 2 m by 2100. However, a 2 m increase by 2100 is considered very unlikely.
- 21st century increases in storm surge height and frequency in the southern North Sea are less likely than previously thought.
- The TE2100 project has taken an adaptive approach that can cope with large ranges of change if needed. These new results confirm that this is a sensible way forward.