Interpreting plume plots
Plume plots illustrate the possible change in a variable across the century and at a range of defined probability levels. There are a couple of ways to interpret the data from the graphs as illustrated in below.
Figure 1
It is also possible to use a plume plot to identify the different likely ranges at different time periods in the century. In this example (Figure 2) the likely range in the 2030s is between 0.6 and 3º whereas the likely range in the 2050s is between 1.3 and 4.5º.
Figure2
If you want to know when a particular threshold might be exceeded according to the projections, this can be identified from a plume plot. In this example (Figure 1), there is a 67% chance of the temperature being below the threshold of 2.5º by the 2040s, a 50% chance by the 2050s, and a 33% chance by the 2060s.
- Last updated: Sunday, 11 March 2012