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Online Briefing report 5 Some projections of changes in the UK climate

In this section we show some probabilistic projections of changes in a few of the most commonly used variables and seasons, for the future time period of the 2080s and the Medium emissions scenario, as examples of the sort of information available in UKCP09:



  • Change in precipitation, , winter and summer means (25 km resolution)

  • Change in annual mean precipitation (river basins)

A short summary of any significant pattern is given for of changes (that is, those at the 50% probability level) by the 2080s under the Medium emissions scenario, although geographical patterns can most easily be seen from the maps. Other time periods and emissions scenarios, and particularly probability levels, may have different patterns.

Because the choice of projections depends upon the individual user’s attitude to risk, a full summary of results is not provided here. Advice on how to access projections that relate to users’ own needs is provided in the User Guidance.

A comprehensive set of maps and graphs can be seen on the UKCP09 website, which provides many more illustrations of projections than can be shown in a report, e.g. maps for other future time periods and emissions scenarios. And, because pre-prepared graphics are not always sufficient, a User Interface, and accompanying guidance, has been developed in response to user consultations, to allow users to download the underlying datasets, to access projections for other variables, probability levels, locations, time periods, temporal and spatial averages and emissions scenarios.

This section also shows examples of changes in daily climate from the UKCP09 Weather Generator.

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