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Spatially Coherent Projections

The SCPs are created by incorporating the associated with the enhanced spread of global temperature changes in UKCP09 rather than those changes in global temperature explored only by the RCM ensemble. This is achieved by applying scaling factors to the 11-member RCM with the goal of incorporating the broader range and sources of uncertainty considered within UKCP09. A technical note outlining a detailed methodology [1Mb] is available for download.

The SCP data is available from the User Interface as .csv files (via the .csv archive), but is not as easy to use as the UKCP09 information, and does not have as much user support.

The SCPs provide projections of climate change, and absolute future climate for:

Each individual SCP data file contains projections for:

The data is available in .csv format and is downloadable from the UKCP09 csv archive, accessible through the UKCP09 User interface . 

  • When should I use SCPs?
  • When one wants to take into account more of the UKCP09 probabilistic range than the 11-member RCMs offer (note the SCPs do not include the full range of uncertainty included in the UKCP09 probabilistic projections).
  • When performing studies that require information from more than one grid square in a spatially coherent way.
  • When information from both UKCP09 variable is required together.
More about what you should use them for…
  • Benefits of the Spatially Coherent Projections
  • The SCPs are spatially coherent across grid squares
  • A larger number of climate variables (including wind speed)
  • A consideration of the wider UKCP09 probabilistic range 
More about the benefits…
  • Main assumptions
  • That each of the 11 runs of the SCPs are equally plausible.
  • That projected changes in climate are stationary across a given 30-year time period
More about the main assumptions…
  • What to be aware of 
  • The SCPs are not available in a user-friendly manner
  • The SCPs are not a replacement for UKCP09 
  • No likelihoods are attached to each of the 11 ensemble members
  • While the SCPs explore more of the range of the uncertainties available in UKCP09 they still under-sample the full probabilistic range.
  • The SCP output cannot be used in conjunction with the UKCP09 probabilistic output.
  • The SCPs do not represent a smooth trajectory of change through the 21st century.
More about what to be aware of…
  • Further information 

Download the Link to SCPs methodology report [1Mb] (pdf, 1.3 MB)