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High emissions

High emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.2ºC.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 4.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7ºC.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 5.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 10ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 10ºC.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 4.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.7ºC.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –8% and is very unlikely to be more than 9%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –8% to 9%.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 19%; it is very unlikely to be less than 6% and is very unlikely to be more than 36%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 36%.

  • Under high emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –21%; it is very unlikely to be less than –40% and is very unlikely to be more than –1%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –40% to 3%.

 

 

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