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Medium emissions

Medium emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.2ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 4.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 10ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.7ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –6% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –8% to 9%.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 12%; it is very unlikely to be less than 1% and is very unlikely to be more than 25%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 36%.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –17%; it is very unlikely to be less than –33% and is very unlikely to be more than 0%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –40% to 3%.

 

 

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