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Medium emissions

Medium emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.7ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 7.5ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 4.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 8.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 10.6ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 8.4ºC.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –5% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –6% to 8%.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 20%; it is very unlikely to be less than 4% and is very unlikely to be more than 44%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 4% to 57%.

  • Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –21%; it is very unlikely to be less than –45% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –53% to 11%.

 

 

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