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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.2ºC.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.6ºC.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 3.5ºC.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.8ºC.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than –4% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –5% to 6%.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 6%; it is very unlikely to be less than –2% and is very unlikely to be more than 16%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –3% to 16%.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –6%; it is very unlikely to be less than –22% and is very unlikely to be more than 11%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –24% to 15%.

 

 

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