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Sea level rise

The key findings for UKCP09 are a quick way to see projected changes in the UK climate at a national and regional level. They use the three UKCP09 emissions scenarios, and a range of probability levels to show the spread of possible outcomes.

Use the key findings to:

  • communicate the main results of UKCP09;
  • raise awareness about climate change;
  • consider climate changes at a national or regional level; and
  • introduce the concept of probabilistic climate projections.

The table shows for each decade of (cm) with respect to 1990 levels.

The mean sea level estimate for around the UK is 93 to 190 cm, but please note that the top of the range is very unlikely to occur in the 21st century.

           
  London
 Cardiff
 Edinburgh Belfast
High Med Low
 High
 Med
 Low
 High Med Low High Med Low
2000
 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.2 2.3 1.7 1.3
2010 7.3 6.2 5.3 7.3 6.2 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.6 4.9 3.8 2.8
2020
11.5 9.7 8.2 11.5 9.7 8.2 7.5 5.7 4.3 7.8 6.0 4.6
2030
 16.0 13.5 11.4 15.9 13.4 11.4 10.7 8.2 6.1 11.1 8.6 6.6
2040
 20.8 17.5 14.8 20.8 17.5 14.8 14.2 10.9 8.2 14.7 11.4 8.7
2050
 25.8 21.8 18.4 25.9 21.8 18.4 18.0 13.9 10.5 18.6 14.5 11.1
2060
 31.4 26.3 22.2 31.4 26.3 22.2 22.1 17.1 13.0 22.9 17.8 13.7
2070
 37.2 31.2 26.3 37.1 31.1 26.3 26.6 20.6 15.7 27.4 21.4 16.5
2080
 43.3 36.3 30.5 43.3 36.2 30.5 31.4 24.4 18.6 32.3 25.3 19.6
2090
 49.7 41.6 35.0 49.7 41.6 35.0 36.5 28.4 21.8 37.6 29.4 22.8
2095
 53.1 44.4 37.3 53.1 44.4 37.3 39.2 30.5 23.4 40.3 31.6 24.5